Analysis
What if the horizon moves?
The single most useful question in a migration plan is what happens when the deadline moves. Every cell below is the same deterministic engine, recomputed for that horizon.
2033
| Survey | H=2028 | H=2030 | H=2033 | H=2035 | H=2040 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demo: billing-gateway12 surfaces | 608.8y ago · 11 late | 606.8y ago · 10 late | 583.8y ago · 6 late | 551.8y ago · 1 late | 453.2y · 0 late |
- Demo: billing-gateway12 surfaces · 0 triaged · first break in -3.8yHigh58
Why 2030 and 2035 are the anchors
NIST IR 8547 sets the schedule for algorithm transitions, and it is the date procurement contracts and audits will reference. A plan that only reacts to a quantum computer arriving is already late if it was written against 2035. source
What this does not model
Implementation effort, vendor readiness, protocol-level breakage, or the physical cost of moving to bigger keys and signatures. Those are real and they are yours to argue about. The point of this table is the calendar, which nobody gets to negotiate.
Engineering aid only. Do not treat a score here as a compliance position.